Sept. 22 MLB Picks and Preview — Colorado Rockies (67-88) at Los Angeles Dodgers (99-56)

(Justin Turner photo courtesy Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports)

This is the full preview(s) as seen on the Winners and Whiners and Stat Salt websites. The confidence rating for all picks on a scale from 1 to 5 is in parentheses.

Note: The 5/5 does NOT represent the best overall pick of the day’s games when there are multiple games, simply the best pick(s) from each individual game.

When and Where: Sunday, Sept. 22, Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, Calif., 4:10 p.m. EDT.

After tinkering with his rotation ahead of the playoffs, Dave Roberts is hoping Hyun-Jin Ryu can build on a solid outing Sunday when the NL West-champion Los Angeles Dodgers wrap up their series with the Colorado Rockies.

Senztaela seeks career-best 11th win for Rox

Antonio Senzatela (10-10, 6.83 ERA) has the first of his two chances to set a new career high in wins as he takes the ball for Colorado. The right-hander is seeking his first three-start winning streak since May 3-14, 2017, during his rookie season, which was the other year he won 10 games.

Senzatela ground out a typical Coors Field-type victory Monday, overcoming two home runs and giving up four runs in six innings as the Rockies defeated the New York Mets 9-4. The Venezuelan, though, has had trouble transferring his home form to the road — Senzatela has lost four straight starts outside Coors Field and is 4-6 with a 7.17 ERA in 12 overall outings.

He has split two decisions while posting a 5.65 ERA in three matchups with the Dodgers this season, giving up 12 runs in 14 1-3 innings. The loss came at Chavez Ravine earlier this month when Senzatela was reached for five runs in three innings of a 7-3 defeat.

Roberts hoping Ryu is back to form after sharp outing

Ryu (12-5, 2.35) endured a four-start funk in which he was drilled for 21 runs and 31 hits in 19 innings. The stretch was concerning considering the left-hander has given up just 50 runs in 27 starts all season.

That is what made his outing eight days ago against the New York Mets on the road so encouraging. He matched Jacob deGrom zero for zero over seven innings before the bullpen faltered in a 3-0 defeat, but the 90-pitch outing that was also his 20th quality start of the year showed Ryu had found his form.

The left-hander had a middling outing versus Senzatela earlier this month, yielding three runs and six hits while walking four in 4 1-3 innings. Ryu is 0-1 with a 4.87 ERA in four matchups in 2019 but has recorded quality starts in two of them.

The South Korean is 9-1 with a 1.77 ERA in 13 starts at Dodger Stadium this year, but his earned run average has more than doubled in the last two outings there after conceding 10 earned runs in 8 2-3 innings.

Notable Trends

The Dodgers are:

  • 49-12 in their last 61 games vs. right-handed starters.
  • 57-24 in their last 81 during game 3 of a series.
  • 22-8 in their last 30 games vs. sub-.500 teams.

The Rockies are:

  • 1-6 in their last seven during game 3 of a series.
  • 0-5 in Senzatela’s last five road starts.
  • 11-24 in their last 35 games vs. NL West opponents.

*****5-Star Pick*****

Dodgers -1.5 runs first 5 innings (-115)

Going back to the well for a second straight game with this pick, with having more confidence in Ryu pitching well at home and on extra rest. There is some risk given the Rockies have gotten to the lefty early in a pair of starts at Chavez Ravine, but the hedge here is Ryu is back on track.

****4-Star Pick****

Dodgers -1.5 runs (-171)

There is some wait-and-see feelings with Ryu, but this matchup also appears to be a very favorable one for the Dodgers with Senzatela’s road form. Ryu is also 3-1 with a 0.92 ERA in six starts this season pitching on six days or more of rest, and the belief is the South Korean will turn in one of his typical outing to push Los Angeles to the 100-win mark for the second time in three seasons and eighth time in club history.

Dodgers OVER 1.5 runs first 3 innings (-121)

Another pick against Senzatela based on his recent road form, but his early form in general. The right-hander does not have an ERA better than 5.09 in any of the first three innings, and the cumulative mark for the first three innings is 6.55.

***3-Star Picks***

UNDER 9 runs (-115)

A slight lean to the under, with confidence in Ryu and the hope Senzatela can grind his way through five innings without too much damage by the Dodgers. The Rockies’ righty has been a friend of the under in divisional matchups, with an 11-4-1 mark in his last 16 such starts.

The under has been a Sunday fun day with the Dodgers, hitting the last five times, and the under is also 5-1-1 in their last seven against sub-.500 teams.

Rockies UNDER 3 runs (-125)

A confidence pick in Ryu resuming his home dominance, where the Dodgers have held opponents to three or fewer runs in 10 of his last 11 starts. Colorado has also been held to three or fewer runs in seven of its last 11 games, even when including the first two of this set.

OVER 5 runs first 5 innings (-121)

This is a pick against Senzatela given his road form, which includes giving up five or more runs in four straight starts while failing to last more than 4 1-3 innings. Colorado has given Ryu some issues in Los Angeles, so even one or two runs by the Rockies should be enough for the over to hit here.

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