(Stephen Strasburg photo courtesy Brad Mills/USA TODAY Sports)
This is the full preview(s) as seen on the Winners and Whiners and Stat Salt websites. The confidence rating for all picks on a scale from 1 to 5 is in parentheses.
Note: The 5/5 does NOT represent the best overall pick of the day’s games when there are multiple games, simply the best pick(s) from each individual game.
When and Where: Sunday, July 28, Nationals Park, Washington D.C., 1:35 p.m. EDT.
Max Scherzer may be the staff ace of the Washington Nationals, but Stephen Strasburg has been both their best and most consistent pitcher this season.
Strasburg looks to win a career-high seventh consecutive start Sunday when the Nationals try to avoid a three-game sweep at the hands of the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers and All-Star Walker Buehler on Sunday.
Buehler back on track after sharp outing versus Fish
After enduring a winless three-start stretch around the All-Star break in which he was tagged for 16 runs and 26 hits in 18 2-3 innings, Buehler (9-1, 3.23 ERA) righted himself last Sunday against Miami by scattering five hits and striking out 11 in seven innings of a 9-0 romp over the Marlins.
“The fastball lane was consistent on the glove side,” manager Dave Roberts told the Dodgers’ official website. “[Buehler] was commanding the down-and-away low dart to the right-handed hitter. The cutter and breaking ball off that. Getting ahead all day. He could essentially do whatever he wanted.”
Buehler, who hopes to celebrate his 25th birthday Sunday with a victory, also had a strong start against Washington in the previous series on the West Coast. The right-hander was in line for a win May 11 when he limited the Nationals to four hits in seven innings, but the bullpen broke down in the eighth of a 5-2 defeat.
Will Smith doubled his career RBI total in Saturday’s 9-3 victory after going 3 for 3 with a homer, two doubles, and six runs batted in after being recalled from the minors Friday.
Strasburg out to extend roll in series finale for Nats
Strasburg (13-4, 3.37), bidding to become the first 14-game winner in the majors, also won six consecutive starts from May 20-June 20, 2012. The right-hander has a 2.39 ERA with 44 strikeouts in 37 2-3 innings during his current run and carries a home shutout streak of 16 1-3 innings into this contest.
Strasburg tossed an effective six innings against Colorado on Tuesday night, giving up three hits and two walks in Washington’s 11-1 rout. He used all four of his pitches nearly equally in a 107-pitch performance, throwing at least 20 fastballs, sliders, curves, and change-ups without throwing more than 30 of any one pitch.
“As you get older and stuff, you might be a tick down on your velocity, so you have to pitch a bit more,” Strasburg explained to The Washington Post. “Especially when guys are trying to get to your fastball early in the count because they don’t want to see the other stuff later.”
Strasburg was on the short end of a 6-0 road loss to the Dodgers on May 12, allowing two runs in six innings. That was his third straight loss to Los Angeles and dropped him to 2-5 despite a 2.67 ERA in 10 career matchups. The righty is 2-2 with a 3.08 ERA in six starts in the nation’s capital versus the Dodgers.
Despite going 0 for 9 in the first two games of this series, center fielder A.J. Pollock likely will be in the Dodgers’ lineup Sunday since he is 6 for 11 with a homer, triple, and double versus Strasburg. Cody Bellinger, though, is 2 for 13 in his matchups.
Strasburg out to extend roll in series finale for Nats
Strasburg (13-4, 3.37), bidding to become the first 14-game winner in the majors, also won six consecutive starts from May 20-June 20, 2012. The right-hander has a 2.39 ERA with 44 strikeouts in 37 2-3 innings during his current run and carries a home shutout streak of 16 1-3 innings into this contest.
Strasburg tossed an effective six innings against Colorado on Tuesday night, giving up three hits and two walks in Washington’s 11-1 rout. He used all four of his pitches nearly equally in a 107-pitch performance, throwing at least 20 fastballs, sliders, curves, and change-ups without throwing more than 30 of any one pitch.
“As you get older and stuff, you might be a tick down on your velocity, so you have to pitch a bit more,” Strasburg explained to The Washington Post. “Especially when guys are trying to get to your fastball early in the count because they don’t want to see the other stuff later.”
Strasburg was on the short end of a 6-0 road loss to the Dodgers on May 12, allowing two runs in six innings. That was his third straight loss to Los Angeles and dropped him to 2-5 despite a 2.67 ERA in 10 career matchups. The righty is 2-2 with a 3.08 ERA in six starts in the nation’s capital versus the Dodgers.
Despite going 0 for 9 in the first two games of this series, center fielder A.J. Pollock likely will be in the Dodgers’ lineup Sunday since he is 6 for 11 with a homer, triple, and double versus Strasburg. Cody Bellinger, though, is 2 for 13 in his matchups.
Notable Trends
The Nationals are:
- 23-4 in Strasburg’s last 27 Sunday starts.
- 21-9 in their last 30 games after losing the first two games of the series.
- 6-1 in their last seven during game 3 of a series.
The Dodgers are:
General:
- The visiting team is 3-9 in the last 12 games Jeremie Rehak is plate umpire.
*****5-Star Pick*****
UNDER 4.5 runs first 5 innings (-105)
As opposed to the main over/under of five runs at -140, there is enough confidence in both Buehler and Strasburg to defy the hook at 4.5 runs being offered as an alternate line on PointsBet.com and deliver the under.
The five-inning under is 3-1 in Strasburg’s last four starts, with the one over coming when the Nationals erupted for 10 runs. The belief is Buehler will pitch more like he did in his previous start than his prior three, though the over hit versus Miami because the Dodgers put up a six-spot.
Both pitchers delivered the under in the previous series between the teams in Los Angeles, and Strasburg has held opponents to one run combined in the first five innings of his last four starts.
Even with the under splitting the first two games, it is 21-3 in Washington’s last 24.
****4-Star Pick****
UNDER 8.5 runs (-105)
Saturday’s game marked the first time in six meetings between the teams the over hit (1-4-1), and in taking Strasburg, the expectation is for a low-scoring game. The under is 7-2 in his last nine starts versus NL West teams and 7-2-1 in his last 10 against above-.500 teams.
The under is also 8-3-1 in Buehler’s last 12 starts when pitching the third game of a series as well as 15-4 in Washington’s last 19 games versus righties.
***3-Star Picks***
Nationals ML (Even)
This is a confidence pick in Strasburg to continue his roll in this high-stakes game the Nationals need for both confidence and wild-card purposes. The righty has delivered in his last two starts following Nationals losses, and the hedge is his home form will trump his recent struggles versus the Dodgers.
Dodgers UNDER 4 runs (Even)
This is an all-in pick with Strasburg, albeit a difficult one because of the Dodgers offense. The Nationals have held opponents to four or fewer runs in seven of Strasburg’s last 10 starts and nine of their last 12 at home.
Los Angeles has been held to four or fewer runs in just seven of its 23 games against NL East teams, but Washington has done it three times.
Nationals +0.5 runs first 5 innings (-140)
The Nationals are 4-1-1 at the five-inning mark in Strasburg’s last six home starts and 4-1-1 in his last six overall. This is staying consistent with confidence in the right-hander to deliver a stellar effort, and he’ll need to as the Dodgers are 7-1 at the midway point in Buehler’s last eight starts despite his rough patch.
UNDER 0.5 runs/NO 1st inning run (-121)
The money line came in better than expected at -121, and both pitchers should be good for a scoreless first. Strasburg has been reached for a first-inning run once during his six-start winning streak, and Buehler has conceded a first-inning run once in his last eight outings while yielding three overall in the opening frame on the season.
Altruda's Alley - Where sports and snark intersect with gambling lines 